Power distribution network main equipment fault probability model parameter identification method and system

The invention discloses a power distribution network main equipment fault probability evaluation model parameter identification method and system, and the method comprises the steps: building a fault probability evaluation model, obtaining a maximum fault probability and a minimum fault probability from fault probability historical data, and enabling the maximum fault probability to correspond to a health state first evaluation value, performing first identification on the to-be-identified parameter by using the minimum fault probability corresponding to the second evaluation value of the health state; constructing an objective function by using the fault probability historical data and the health state historical data of the main equipment, and performing secondary identification on the to-be-identified parameters through iterative calculation by adopting optimization algorithms such as a genetic algorithm and taking the minimum value of the objective function as an optimization target ...